Global Economic dislocation has created
opportunities to realign superpower interests. After the fall of the Soviet
Empire the world was briefly held together by US unipolarity. That has now been replaced by an emerging
multipolarity that includes Russia,
China and the United States of America.
Traditional or transient alliances will fall away. All nations should be wary of promises of
protection. The future is neither
guaranteed nor at all clear. Those nations that depend for their economic
well-being on the largess of their patrons should be looking further afield
and weaning their economies off their addiction to easy money.
US Aid to Egypt,
the most populous Arab country, between 1948 and 2012 totalled $72bn while
during the slightly later period of 1949 till 2012 aid to Israel totalled
$109bn. US
government loan guarantees have eased Israel’s
access to global capital markets but it has also meant that Israel’s second
largest budget item is its repayment of these loans.
Russia has a substantial
investment in Syria.
It is a significant and prestigious strategic asset which it cannot consider
the possibility of losing. The Syrian port
of Tartus is Russia’s only
Mediterranean naval base for its Black Sea Fleet. American fear of Russian
influence in Turkey
means that it will forgive almost any Turkish geopolitical transgression in
order to slow down the burgeoning Russian-Turkish economic relationship. China will trade with anyone who supplies it
with oil and has extensive dealings with Iran through its China National
Petroleum Company.
In most cases, economics will always trump morality.
So where does this leave Israel,
surrounded by nations that have rarely recognised the rights of their ethnic
and religious minorities?
Nahum Barnea wrote about Egypt that
even ordinary Egyptians saw themselves as having “…the confidence that a direct
line connects the magnificent culture of the Pharaohs to modern-day Egypt, and
the confidence that Egypt is the sole leader of the Arab world; the military,
political and cultural superpower.” Israel’s
situation could not be further from this. Widespread secularism has failed to
find a cultural narrative that both left and right can share which facilitates
a vision of who they, as Israelis, are. The political system is largely to
blame for this failure of identity because it disenfranchises the majority in
favour of peripheral and radical interests.
It is one of the main reasons for Islamic / Arab confidence that Israel’s days
are numbered. The Islamic view is far simpler – suffused throughout with
Islamism and Colonialism; it cherishes an historic memory of ancient empires
reflecting past glories down through the millennia, even when the history has
to be re-written to accommodate the self-delusion of eternal superiority.
If Israeli politics is ever to
regain the middle ground it must first discard the visionless economic free-for-all
that has so alienated most Israelis, forcing both rich and poor alike into
extreme positions that no reasonable Israeli could accept. But as the numbers of alienated citizens
grow the critical mass of extremists will likewise expand ensuring deadlock and
violent confrontation. The current
controversy over universal conscription is evidence of the widening gap between
those who identify with the nation and those that not only do not identify but
are also unwilling to contribute as equal partners in the national enterprise.
What is the danger for Israel today?
While Israel
must reduce its areas of strategic threat they are increasing. Instead of the
two fronts of Gaza and Lebanon we now also have Turkey, anxious
to flex its muscles in a war with anyone, so that it may demonstrate its
strength as an Islamic superpower. And Jordan which has refused to even meet with Prime
Minister Netanyahu but blames Israel
for the deadlock with the Palestinians (while it retains its own expansionist
dreams). Egypt
in modern times has always viewed itself as leading the Arab world and has made
lots of threatening noises about annulling the Peace treaty with Israel. Bereft
of President Mubarak, Egypt no
longer has the fig leaf of a secular (military backed) one party president to
pretend that it is serious about peace with Israel. And Iran,
contemptuously chauvinistic of its Persian Imperial past and Shiite present, it
manipulates Shiite dissatisfaction in order to export its own brand of
extremism with missionary zeal across the Arab world. Syria fears Turkey
and Lebanon fears Syria which also sees Israel as part of its historic
imperial patrimony. A destabilised
region creates few if any opportunities for peaceful co-existence.
The real question for Israel is
whether the limits to which she can respond to any significant provocation from
any direction in the future is restricted by a radicalised Islamist Egypt? And
for this Israel
must be prepared.
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